Brand new battleground polling shows President Trump with a commanding +12% lead in a multi-candidate race in North Carolina, a state he won by only 1.4% in 2020. In a head-to-head matchup with Joe Biden, Trump leads by +8%.
The poll was conducted by North Star Opinion Research for American Greatness, where I am now a contributor for polling and strategy. This representative sample universe of likely North Carolina voters reported that they broke for Trump +2% in 2020.
So, what’s driving this big Trump leap in a critical battleground state?
It’s largely immigration. This survey also revealed that a mere 13% of citizens there believe that immigration “makes the quality of life better” in North Carolina. Even among Democrats, only 24% responded positively about immigration. Among blue collar (non-college educated) whites, a scant 6% see immigration as a net benefit. Notably, the question did not differentiate between legal and unlawful migration.
In a related question, an overwhelming supermajority of voters also believe that only US citizens should be allowed to vote in elections. In many jurisdictions of America, non-citizens are explicitly allowed to vote in local elections, and of course protections are very weak in those cities and states to preclude non-citizens from voting in federal elections.
But North Carolina will likely have a referendum on the November ballot to require citizenship verification, and a whopping 79% of North Carolinians say they will vote for it. Only 15% of voters there support the idea of non-citizens voting.
Both of these survey results – on immigration broadly and on citizenship voting requirements – point to a general rejection of the globalism that has been pushed so aggressively by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. With ten million or more illegal aliens pouring into America via Biden’s porous border, sensible Americans increasingly insist that the US re-establish sovereignty over our nation. In fact, a growing consensus emerges that demands America once again prioritize US citizens first, protecting their economic vitality, street safety, and national security from a ruling class that devalues citizenship.
Aside from these key issues, this new North Carolina poll also reveals some important insights regarding the dynamics of the presidential race. First, the survey dates “in the field” straddled the guilty verdict announcement in New York for President Trump. With roughly half of the poll conducted both before and after the NY verdict, the pollster reported that there were no material shifts in sentiment after that news was known.
In addition, the substantial lead for Trump in a multi-candidate race in North Carolina also showed Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. taking far more votes away from Biden rather than Trump, by a nearly 3/1 margin. Kennedy’s appeal overall drifted downward, to only 9% -- and his share emanated mostly from Biden leaners.
There are likely two key factors at play here. First, as the election nears and the decision process crystallizes, voters start to “come home” to their respective R and D camps. Secondly, effective messaging from Team Trump to expose the very radical views of Kennedy on key issues seems to show results among Trump leaners.
So, a very strong poll for Trump overall, by many metrics. If this double-digit North Carolina lead persists, it will effectively take North Carolina off the map for November and force Biden further into an electoral corner for the election, with an ever-narrower path ahead for the Democrats.
Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Donald Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN. He is currently president of the League of American Workers and a contributor to American Greatness for polling and strategy.