Michigan Democrats Split with Biden
Biden’s base fractures in the Midwest over the economy and the war in Israel.
In front of Michigan’s primary, new polling numbers reveal serious cracks in Biden’s support base in the state -- that point to a hotly contested November general election there.
Specifically, Biden and Harris suffer material erosion of support among young voters on key issues. Biden also faces significant leakage among other key constituencies in Michigan including independent-leaning Democrats, working-class men, and Muslims.
My populist labor organization, the League of American Workers, surveyed this battleground state and found an overall exact tie between Trump and Biden for the general election, at 43-43%, with 14% undecided. For context, Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 150,000 votes.
But the most interesting details lie beneath the surface of that topline deadlocked number. These crosstabs suggest a tough uphill battle ahead for Team Biden. The polling firm North Star Opinion Research surveyed a sample size of 600 likely voters who split 45/41% for Biden in the 2020 election in Michigan.
We asked the self-identified Democrats and Independents who lean Democrat the following question:
“Some Democratic elected officials in Michigan have called for Democratic voters to oppose Joe Biden in the state’s upcoming presidential primary, as a protest over his support of Israel in its war with Hamas. If you vote in the Democratic presidential primary, are you likely or unlikely to cast a protest vote against Joe Biden over the Israel-Gaza war?”
Overall, 19% of Democratic voters said they do, in fact, plan to oppose Biden in their primary, as a protest against his Israel/Gaza policies.
Among young voters, that number jumps up to a stunning 29%. An identical percentage of Independent-leaning Democrats also plan an anti-Biden protest vote.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the Muslim Democratic number is higher still, at 36%. Michigan has a large and very organized Muslim population of 310,000, mostly in and around the city of Dearborn.
White working-class men, formerly a key pillar constituency for the Democratic Party, report similar dismay with Biden. Fully 33% of Democratic voters in that demographic report they plan a protest vote against Biden in the Michigan primary.
Of course, big issues other than Israel also drive this antagonism against Biden among formerly dependably Democratic voter groups. For example, 63% of white working-class Democratic men said they were better off economically with Trump vs. only 24% with Biden.
Young Americans also convey serious pessimism on Biden’s economy. Statistically, young workers do not hold substantial assets, and have not benefitted from the equity and real estate inflation of Bidenomics. Since these aspirational young strivers rely mostly on wages, they suffer the ravages on inflation and grow increasingly frustrated with Biden.
On this issue, the number one concern of voters, only 3% of Michigan young voters ages 18-34 report “strong approval” of Biden on the economy, while a whopping 50% report “strong disapproval.”
So…trouble lurks for Biden in Michigan. And the latest polling proves this point.
Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group.