Trump Leads in Nevada – the “Sunbelt Sweep” Scenario
The electoral map outlook and a possible battle for Omaha…
I previously wrote in Daily Caller about a sweep of the lower third of the United States, with Trump leading from Arizona all the way east to the Atlantic coast of North Carolina, with New Mexico as the only exception.
Now, evidence grows that a Sunbelt Sweep for Trump is indeed in formation, with brand new polling showing Trump with a 3% lead in battleground Nevada. The breakdown in a three-way ballot is Trump 37%, Biden 34%, Kennedy 15%, plus 13% undecided.
This poll was commissioned by my populist labor organization, the League of American Workers, and conducted by Iron Light Intelligence. The survey universe was 600 likely voters, with a Biden +4 sampling from 2020 (Biden won Nevada then by 2.4%).
The main driver is clearly the economy, as Nevadans deal with ravages of Bidenomics. Nevada has some of the highest inflation in America, making life far less affordable for citizens there, especially working-class families.
For example, Governor Joe Lombardo’s office recently documented the intense housing affordability crisis in the Silver State. When Biden took office, an average home in the Las Vegas metro area cost $342,000. Combined with a mortgage interest rate below 3% at that time, the monthly cost for an average household was $1,363. Now, that monthly cost more than doubles to $2,808. Why? Because Biden’s exorbitant borrowing and spending sends inflation soaring, pushing mortgage rates above 7%, and the average house price vaulting to $460,000 in Las Vegas.
Nevada voters know this reality all too well – and they blame Joe Biden. In fact, our poll also found that only 36% of Nevadans say that Biden’s economy works well for middle income households, while 64% say it does not.
Aspirational young Americans are particularly punished by the inflationary Biden economy, because they generally do not hold substantial assets, like stocks and real estate, that appreciate in an inflationary era. Consequently, only 11% of young voters in Nevada aged 18-34 say that Bidenomics works “very well.”
For the key Hispanic population of Nevada, economic pessimism dominates as well, with only 14% of Latino voters saying Biden’s economic agenda works “very well.” Across America, from battleground states to even solidly-Democratic strongholds like New York, Hispanics rally to the America First movement, because they find no home among the 2020’s Democrats who are largely led by economic elitists and cultural radicals.
If these political trends hold across the Sun Belt — with Trump leading Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — then what does the Electoral College map portend?
A Trump victory in those four states plus repeats of all the other states he won in 2020 puts the 45th president at 268 electoral votes, just shy of the 270 needed to win. So, the upper Midwest then becomes key, particularly Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Winning any one of the three makes Trump president again, and our polling has him currently effectively tied in all of them.
But if Biden can hold those states, then the single electoral vote of the Second Congressional District of Nebraska around Omaha suddenly becomes decisive and could force at least a tie for Trump, even before counting Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If that tie scenario unfolds, the winner would be decided by the US House with each state delegation receiving one vote. For reference, Maine and Nebraska are the only states that separate their electoral votes by district, rather than a winner-take-all for the state.
In 2020, Trump lost NE-02 by -6%. But, the district is hardly deeply blue, and currently has a Republican representative in the US House. Our survey shows Biden with a +5% lead there right now, within the margin of error for our poll of 400 likely voters in the district.
Like most of America, Nebraska Two gives Biden miserable marks on the economy. Only 15% of likely voters there say the Biden economy works “very well” while 37% say “not at all.”
So, given current trends, I expect a Trump “Sunbelt Sweep” plus a victory in one, or all, of the northern states to propel President Trump back into office. But it would behoove those of us backing his candidacy to also invest in Nebraska 2, where the battle is slightly uphill but eminently winnable.
The great news for America First supporters is that the electoral map tilts ever more against Biden, who has to pull off a Northern Sweep to counter Trump’s Sunbelt Sweep. Because of his economic failures and his open border, Biden finds himself in a political corner, and one way to further pressure him is to devote time, energy, and capital to voters in Omaha.
Steve Cortes is former senior advisor to President Donald Trump, former commentator for Fox News and CNN, and president of the League of American Workers.