Calling their latest nutso spending bill "The Inflation Reduction Act" is the best "tell" yet as to the degree of contempt the dems feel toward voters. The First thing the new congress needs to do is pass the "Termination of Biden Grifting Act" halting the spending of all dollars not spent pursuant to this POS bill by January 20th 2023.
There is nothing so fucked up that it can't be unfucked up if the new leadership has the guts.
We will be lucky if we get out of this with just a recession rather than a depression. Thanks as always Steve for using facts and data to make your assertions.
The Inflation Reduction Act hit a new low for Democrats! Clearly, they are completely disconnected from the average voter. The Act hurts workers and consumers while essentially acting as a massive corporate giveaway. It does this at the worst possible time. The gains, more tax from Amazon and their ilk, and capping out of pocket drug expenses to a whopping $2000 per year, are the only benefits that I can see. There appears to be some debate about the first one, though I am willing to keep in the plus column. This is not about Republican or Democrat anymore, but simply containing the damage!
I hope everyone who reads this gets the idea that we all personally need to put our time and $ on the line before during and after all elections
It should be crystal clear where this is all heading and we (those who live this wonderful country) need all hands on deck to push back hard before it gets much much worse
They don’t care who gets crushed in their vile quest for power. We need to simply respond to them in like manner they play smash mouth do must we.
Show up and do your part VOTE Be an election official and more
I am wary of putting too much cred in political parties. They aren't representative. The parties play us constantly. They need to be taken over, neutralized or eliminated, not promoted. And we need serious campaign finance reform at the federal level. And yes, of course, VOTE! However, anyone who imagines that this or that party has your interests at heart, is a fool!
They WANT us to respond "in kind." Vote. Make generous donations. Participate in the process. Leave the "vile" stuff [e. g., burning and looting] to them. Voters have had it with that crap.
Consumer sentiment surveys are not worth the paper they are written on; despite having a reputation for being "forward looking" indicators. There is no correlation between real consumer spending and the surveys (real PCE is still growing double digits YOY). They lag when predicting recessions. Are even worse at predicting recoveries. And according to that Michigan survey, consumer sentiment was permanently declining from 1999 to 2006, during the largest US residential property boom in history. The surveys look intuitive and sort-of correlate to GDP recessions, but when you use the data in real time, and apply some math to the survey results, it is nothing but hot air. i.e. using consumer confidence will result in lots of bad GDP forecasts. Period.
In other news, manufacturing new orders is a better indicator but largely irrelevant these days because of the size of the services sector. Just like the media obsseses over car sales, but car sales are rounding error these days (as a % of GDP it is not even worth discussing). Moreover, if you use total manufacturing new orders (and not just ISM data) there is no evidence of a slowdown and in fact a new record high (nominal $).
New jobless claims again, a better indicator, but the "trend" needs to be seen in a historical context. 260K claims is *nothing* for most years. And our population has obviously grown a lot over the last several decades so 260K as a % of the population is about as good as it will ever get. Using it to claim the trend is going the wrong way is disingenuous. It is true, but really beside the point, unless you zoom in and exclude all the historical data.
TL;DR - I have no problem with forecasting a recession in the next 9 to 18 months but the 3 metrics being used here are... problematic at best.
Excuse me, but could any sane person not realize that flooding EVERY & ONLY White countries with MILLIONS of non-Whites and telling everyone to “assimilate” to create a blended humanity is White GENOCIDE? Diversity means the final solution to the White problem.
First of all, there is no white problem--don't take the bait put out by perverse liberals! Second of all, the real problem is that no one, except maybe Africa (though that may change soon), is cranking out enough children to grow the population, so it will slowly decline. Some see this as a huge problem. I don't and many others don't either. I think your concern is a bigger problem in Europe than America, which has never been exclusively white. If you focus on what it means to be an American, rather than skin color, our nation will be much stronger and we can address deeper concerns, like immigration and the economy without the pathology of racism.
The Inflation Reduction Act: so they knew how to reduce inflation this entire time, and waited only up until this weekend to pass an act to reduce it… Gives you all the guidance you need on how to vote this year
Liberal politicians are leveraging our declining public educational system in their attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of voters. While in bed with the teacher’s unions they think that they will make lemonade out of lemons. This is contempt and arrogance.
My intention in mentioning the alliance between liberal politicians and teacher’s unions is that they are complicit in the decline of student learning proficiency in our country. This has been getting worse for the last few decades and those in power recognize that they can leverage this lack of educational proficiency by espousing ridiculous political solutions. These politicians believe that they won’t be challenged by their voters due to a lack of understanding as to how our republic operates under our constitution. Of course the liberal media continues their dishonest discourse along the way. Thanks for the challenge.
I'm sure you have good intentions. There are certainly improvements that can be made to our school systems. And there is an active effort, whether direct or indirect, intentional or unintentional, to really hurt our nation through our children. However, the teacher's unions probably play the smallest role, if any, in the development of this problem. Unless, you're thinking of Randi Weingarten, a shill for the Democratic Party. Thing is though, the American Federation of Teachers, of which she is president, isn't really a labor union. It's a lobbying organization that dresses up as a union. Meanwhile, teachers, most of whom are really hard-working individuals, are expected to make bricks without straw. It's a majority female profession, yet they often don't get decent maternity leave or time to really care for their own children, attend parent-teacher conferences, leave work to pick up a sick child, etc.... It's just not cool. Labor is not the problem and we cannot afford to waste energy on the wrong targets--there are so many!
Calling their latest nutso spending bill "The Inflation Reduction Act" is the best "tell" yet as to the degree of contempt the dems feel toward voters. The First thing the new congress needs to do is pass the "Termination of Biden Grifting Act" halting the spending of all dollars not spent pursuant to this POS bill by January 20th 2023.
There is nothing so fucked up that it can't be unfucked up if the new leadership has the guts.
We will be lucky if we get out of this with just a recession rather than a depression. Thanks as always Steve for using facts and data to make your assertions.
The Inflation Reduction Act hit a new low for Democrats! Clearly, they are completely disconnected from the average voter. The Act hurts workers and consumers while essentially acting as a massive corporate giveaway. It does this at the worst possible time. The gains, more tax from Amazon and their ilk, and capping out of pocket drug expenses to a whopping $2000 per year, are the only benefits that I can see. There appears to be some debate about the first one, though I am willing to keep in the plus column. This is not about Republican or Democrat anymore, but simply containing the damage!
I hope everyone who reads this gets the idea that we all personally need to put our time and $ on the line before during and after all elections
It should be crystal clear where this is all heading and we (those who live this wonderful country) need all hands on deck to push back hard before it gets much much worse
They don’t care who gets crushed in their vile quest for power. We need to simply respond to them in like manner they play smash mouth do must we.
Show up and do your part VOTE Be an election official and more
I am wary of putting too much cred in political parties. They aren't representative. The parties play us constantly. They need to be taken over, neutralized or eliminated, not promoted. And we need serious campaign finance reform at the federal level. And yes, of course, VOTE! However, anyone who imagines that this or that party has your interests at heart, is a fool!
They WANT us to respond "in kind." Vote. Make generous donations. Participate in the process. Leave the "vile" stuff [e. g., burning and looting] to them. Voters have had it with that crap.
Hi , I am a Congressional Candidate in MA-8… I am on the Ballot.
Mr Cortez was talking about Car Repo’s
Does anyone know how to find his Calk Talks… Rob Burke… voteforme@burke4business.com
Consumer sentiment surveys are not worth the paper they are written on; despite having a reputation for being "forward looking" indicators. There is no correlation between real consumer spending and the surveys (real PCE is still growing double digits YOY). They lag when predicting recessions. Are even worse at predicting recoveries. And according to that Michigan survey, consumer sentiment was permanently declining from 1999 to 2006, during the largest US residential property boom in history. The surveys look intuitive and sort-of correlate to GDP recessions, but when you use the data in real time, and apply some math to the survey results, it is nothing but hot air. i.e. using consumer confidence will result in lots of bad GDP forecasts. Period.
In other news, manufacturing new orders is a better indicator but largely irrelevant these days because of the size of the services sector. Just like the media obsseses over car sales, but car sales are rounding error these days (as a % of GDP it is not even worth discussing). Moreover, if you use total manufacturing new orders (and not just ISM data) there is no evidence of a slowdown and in fact a new record high (nominal $).
New jobless claims again, a better indicator, but the "trend" needs to be seen in a historical context. 260K claims is *nothing* for most years. And our population has obviously grown a lot over the last several decades so 260K as a % of the population is about as good as it will ever get. Using it to claim the trend is going the wrong way is disingenuous. It is true, but really beside the point, unless you zoom in and exclude all the historical data.
TL;DR - I have no problem with forecasting a recession in the next 9 to 18 months but the 3 metrics being used here are... problematic at best.
Excuse me, but could any sane person not realize that flooding EVERY & ONLY White countries with MILLIONS of non-Whites and telling everyone to “assimilate” to create a blended humanity is White GENOCIDE? Diversity means the final solution to the White problem.
First of all, there is no white problem--don't take the bait put out by perverse liberals! Second of all, the real problem is that no one, except maybe Africa (though that may change soon), is cranking out enough children to grow the population, so it will slowly decline. Some see this as a huge problem. I don't and many others don't either. I think your concern is a bigger problem in Europe than America, which has never been exclusively white. If you focus on what it means to be an American, rather than skin color, our nation will be much stronger and we can address deeper concerns, like immigration and the economy without the pathology of racism.
The Inflation Reduction Act: so they knew how to reduce inflation this entire time, and waited only up until this weekend to pass an act to reduce it… Gives you all the guidance you need on how to vote this year
Liberal politicians are leveraging our declining public educational system in their attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of voters. While in bed with the teacher’s unions they think that they will make lemonade out of lemons. This is contempt and arrogance.
Not sure how the teacher's unions got into this. Their role is simply following the orders of a hostile administration.
My intention in mentioning the alliance between liberal politicians and teacher’s unions is that they are complicit in the decline of student learning proficiency in our country. This has been getting worse for the last few decades and those in power recognize that they can leverage this lack of educational proficiency by espousing ridiculous political solutions. These politicians believe that they won’t be challenged by their voters due to a lack of understanding as to how our republic operates under our constitution. Of course the liberal media continues their dishonest discourse along the way. Thanks for the challenge.
I'm sure you have good intentions. There are certainly improvements that can be made to our school systems. And there is an active effort, whether direct or indirect, intentional or unintentional, to really hurt our nation through our children. However, the teacher's unions probably play the smallest role, if any, in the development of this problem. Unless, you're thinking of Randi Weingarten, a shill for the Democratic Party. Thing is though, the American Federation of Teachers, of which she is president, isn't really a labor union. It's a lobbying organization that dresses up as a union. Meanwhile, teachers, most of whom are really hard-working individuals, are expected to make bricks without straw. It's a majority female profession, yet they often don't get decent maternity leave or time to really care for their own children, attend parent-teacher conferences, leave work to pick up a sick child, etc.... It's just not cool. Labor is not the problem and we cannot afford to waste energy on the wrong targets--there are so many!
One wonders how much of ballooning CC spending is 'discretionary'.