Calling their latest nutso spending bill "The Inflation Reduction Act" is the best "tell" yet as to the degree of contempt the dems feel toward voters. The First thing the new congress needs to do is pass the "Termination of Biden Grifting Act" halting the spending of all dollars not spent pursuant to this POS bill by January 20th 2023.
There is nothing so fucked up that it can't be unfucked up if the new leadership has the guts.
We will be lucky if we get out of this with just a recession rather than a depression. Thanks as always Steve for using facts and data to make your assertions.
The Inflation Reduction Act hit a new low for Democrats! Clearly, they are completely disconnected from the average voter. The Act hurts workers and consumers while essentially acting as a massive corporate giveaway. It does this at the worst possible time. The gains, more tax from Amazon and their ilk, and capping out of pocket drug expenses to a whopping $2000 per year, are the only benefits that I can see. There appears to be some debate about the first one, though I am willing to keep in the plus column. This is not about Republican or Democrat anymore, but simply containing the damage!
I hope everyone who reads this gets the idea that we all personally need to put our time and $ on the line before during and after all elections
It should be crystal clear where this is all heading and we (those who live this wonderful country) need all hands on deck to push back hard before it gets much much worse
They don’t care who gets crushed in their vile quest for power. We need to simply respond to them in like manner they play smash mouth do must we.
Show up and do your part VOTE Be an election official and more
Consumer sentiment surveys are not worth the paper they are written on; despite having a reputation for being "forward looking" indicators. There is no correlation between real consumer spending and the surveys (real PCE is still growing double digits YOY). They lag when predicting recessions. Are even worse at predicting recoveries. And according to that Michigan survey, consumer sentiment was permanently declining from 1999 to 2006, during the largest US residential property boom in history. The surveys look intuitive and sort-of correlate to GDP recessions, but when you use the data in real time, and apply some math to the survey results, it is nothing but hot air. i.e. using consumer confidence will result in lots of bad GDP forecasts. Period.
In other news, manufacturing new orders is a better indicator but largely irrelevant these days because of the size of the services sector. Just like the media obsseses over car sales, but car sales are rounding error these days (as a % of GDP it is not even worth discussing). Moreover, if you use total manufacturing new orders (and not just ISM data) there is no evidence of a slowdown and in fact a new record high (nominal $).
New jobless claims again, a better indicator, but the "trend" needs to be seen in a historical context. 260K claims is *nothing* for most years. And our population has obviously grown a lot over the last several decades so 260K as a % of the population is about as good as it will ever get. Using it to claim the trend is going the wrong way is disingenuous. It is true, but really beside the point, unless you zoom in and exclude all the historical data.
TL;DR - I have no problem with forecasting a recession in the next 9 to 18 months but the 3 metrics being used here are... problematic at best.
Excuse me, but could any sane person not realize that flooding EVERY & ONLY White countries with MILLIONS of non-Whites and telling everyone to “assimilate” to create a blended humanity is White GENOCIDE? Diversity means the final solution to the White problem.
The Inflation Reduction Act: so they knew how to reduce inflation this entire time, and waited only up until this weekend to pass an act to reduce it… Gives you all the guidance you need on how to vote this year
Liberal politicians are leveraging our declining public educational system in their attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of voters. While in bed with the teacher’s unions they think that they will make lemonade out of lemons. This is contempt and arrogance.
Calling their latest nutso spending bill "The Inflation Reduction Act" is the best "tell" yet as to the degree of contempt the dems feel toward voters. The First thing the new congress needs to do is pass the "Termination of Biden Grifting Act" halting the spending of all dollars not spent pursuant to this POS bill by January 20th 2023.
There is nothing so fucked up that it can't be unfucked up if the new leadership has the guts.
We will be lucky if we get out of this with just a recession rather than a depression. Thanks as always Steve for using facts and data to make your assertions.
The Inflation Reduction Act hit a new low for Democrats! Clearly, they are completely disconnected from the average voter. The Act hurts workers and consumers while essentially acting as a massive corporate giveaway. It does this at the worst possible time. The gains, more tax from Amazon and their ilk, and capping out of pocket drug expenses to a whopping $2000 per year, are the only benefits that I can see. There appears to be some debate about the first one, though I am willing to keep in the plus column. This is not about Republican or Democrat anymore, but simply containing the damage!
I hope everyone who reads this gets the idea that we all personally need to put our time and $ on the line before during and after all elections
It should be crystal clear where this is all heading and we (those who live this wonderful country) need all hands on deck to push back hard before it gets much much worse
They don’t care who gets crushed in their vile quest for power. We need to simply respond to them in like manner they play smash mouth do must we.
Show up and do your part VOTE Be an election official and more
Hi , I am a Congressional Candidate in MA-8… I am on the Ballot.
Mr Cortez was talking about Car Repo’s
Does anyone know how to find his Calk Talks… Rob Burke… voteforme@burke4business.com
Consumer sentiment surveys are not worth the paper they are written on; despite having a reputation for being "forward looking" indicators. There is no correlation between real consumer spending and the surveys (real PCE is still growing double digits YOY). They lag when predicting recessions. Are even worse at predicting recoveries. And according to that Michigan survey, consumer sentiment was permanently declining from 1999 to 2006, during the largest US residential property boom in history. The surveys look intuitive and sort-of correlate to GDP recessions, but when you use the data in real time, and apply some math to the survey results, it is nothing but hot air. i.e. using consumer confidence will result in lots of bad GDP forecasts. Period.
In other news, manufacturing new orders is a better indicator but largely irrelevant these days because of the size of the services sector. Just like the media obsseses over car sales, but car sales are rounding error these days (as a % of GDP it is not even worth discussing). Moreover, if you use total manufacturing new orders (and not just ISM data) there is no evidence of a slowdown and in fact a new record high (nominal $).
New jobless claims again, a better indicator, but the "trend" needs to be seen in a historical context. 260K claims is *nothing* for most years. And our population has obviously grown a lot over the last several decades so 260K as a % of the population is about as good as it will ever get. Using it to claim the trend is going the wrong way is disingenuous. It is true, but really beside the point, unless you zoom in and exclude all the historical data.
TL;DR - I have no problem with forecasting a recession in the next 9 to 18 months but the 3 metrics being used here are... problematic at best.
Excuse me, but could any sane person not realize that flooding EVERY & ONLY White countries with MILLIONS of non-Whites and telling everyone to “assimilate” to create a blended humanity is White GENOCIDE? Diversity means the final solution to the White problem.
The Inflation Reduction Act: so they knew how to reduce inflation this entire time, and waited only up until this weekend to pass an act to reduce it… Gives you all the guidance you need on how to vote this year
Liberal politicians are leveraging our declining public educational system in their attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of voters. While in bed with the teacher’s unions they think that they will make lemonade out of lemons. This is contempt and arrogance.
One wonders how much of ballooning CC spending is 'discretionary'.